Weekly Regime Recap — April 1, 2026

Current Classification: BEAR — Capitulation (74% confidence)

The Regime classifier reads BEAR with a capitulation subtype at 74% confidence. This is a shift from last week's 93% standard bear — confidence has dropped while the subtype has worsened.

Capitulation subtypes historically mark the late stages of a drawdown, where panic selling accelerates but exhaustion is approaching. Not a reversal signal — but the setup that precedes one.

Market Snapshot

| Metric | Value | Change |

|--------|-------|--------|

| BTC Price | $68,124 | — |

| ETH Price | $2,142 | — |

| Fear & Greed | 8/100 | Extreme Fear |

| BTC Dominance | 56.1% | Elevated |

| Total Market Cap | $2.43T | — |

| DeFi TVL | $94B | — |

Signal Breakdown

| Signal Direction | Count |

|-----------------|-------|

| Bearish | 4 |

| Neutral | 3 |

| Bullish | 1 |

Four bearish signals still dominate, but three neutral signals suggest the bear pressure is losing conviction. One bullish signal (likely the volume or stablecoin metric) is starting to diverge from the crowd.

What Changed This Week

Fear & Greed collapsed to 8 — the lowest reading since the regime classification started. This is deep fear territory. Historically, single-digit F&G readings precede 2-4 week reversals, but timing is unreliable.

Capitulation subtype — the classifier now labels this as capitulation rather than standard bear. This means we're seeing accelerated selling with volume spikes, which typically indicates late-cycle panic.

Confidence dropped from 93% to 74% — counterintuitively, this is interesting. Falling confidence in a bear regime means the signals are starting to disagree. Some metrics are turning neutral or bullish while others remain bearish. Regime transitions usually start with confidence erosion.

What To Do

If you're running a trading bot:

Regime-based position sizing suggests 40-60% of normal size

Short-only strategies are still favored, but tighten stops — capitulation phases can reverse violently

The /api/v1/intelligence/crowd-positioning endpoint shows funding rate bias — check if shorts are getting crowded

If you're a long-term allocator:

Single-digit Fear & Greed + capitulation subtype is historically a strong accumulation zone on a 3-6 month horizon

DCA timing models favor small entries when F&G < 15

Wait for regime confidence to drop below 50% before increasing size

If you're sitting in cash:

This is what you were waiting for. Capitulation + Extreme Fear is the setup, not the entry signal.

The entry signal is regime transition: BEAR → CHOP at declining confidence. Set up a webhook to get notified when it happens.

Track Record Update

Our track record page shows +9.48% alpha over buy-and-hold across 4,941 snapshots (29 days). Regime-following returned +7.59% while BTC buy-and-hold returned -1.89%.

New This Week

Webhook filters — filter by asset, regime state, or signal strength

CSV signal exports — download full signal history for backtesting

New blog post: How to Backtest by Market Regime — split your backtest performance by bull/bear/chop to find where your edge actually lives

Get the live regime classification:

``bash


curl https://getregime.com/api/v1/market/regime

Full intelligence (Pro): GET /api/v1/intelligence/brief` — Quickstart