10 Crypto Market Regime Indicators Explained

The Regime API classifies crypto markets using 10 weighted signals from 9 data sources. Here's what each signal measures, why it matters, and how much weight it carries.

Signal Weights Overview

|---|---|---|---|---|

| 2 | Aggregated Funding Rate | 10% | CoinGlass | $35/mo |

| 9 | Liquidation Imbalance | 5% | CoinGlass | $35/mo |

Total data cost: $35/mo. The entire intelligence layer runs on free and near-free data sources.

1. BTC SMA 50/200 Crossover (20%)

The single strongest predictor of sustained crypto trends. When the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day ("golden cross"), the market is trending bullish. Below ("death cross") = bearish.

Why 20% weight: In our grid search over 302K candles, SMA 50/200 had the highest standalone predictive power for regimes lasting more than 1 week. It's slow to flip (reduces noise) and captures macro direction.

Current value: Check via curl https://getregime.com/api/v1/market/regime

2. Aggregated Funding Rate (10%)

Perpetual futures funding rates reveal crowd leverage positioning. High positive funding = crowded longs (contrarian bearish). Negative funding = crowded shorts (contrarian bullish).

Why it matters: Extreme funding precedes liquidation cascades. When everyone is long with leverage, the market is fragile.

3. Single-Asset Funding (10%)

Same concept as aggregated, but per-asset from Hyperliquid. This catches asset-specific positioning that the aggregate might miss.

4. Fear & Greed Index (10%)

The classic sentiment indicator. Below 25 = extreme fear (often a bottom signal). Above 75 = extreme greed (often a top signal).

Why only 10%: Fear & Greed is noisy as a standalone signal. It frequently stays in "fear" during healthy corrections within bull markets. The ensemble approach corrects for this.

5. BTC Dominance Trend (10%)

Rising BTC dominance = capital flowing to safety (bearish for alts, mixed for BTC). Falling dominance = risk-on, alt season potential.

6. Stablecoin Supply Delta (10%)

Growing stablecoin supply = new capital entering crypto (bullish). Shrinking = capital leaving (bearish). This is a fundamental flow indicator.

7. Volume Profile (10%)

Compares current 24h volume to the 7-day average. High relative volume confirms trends. Low volume suggests fading momentum.

8. Volatility Regime (10%)

ATR20 / ATR90 ratio. When short-term volatility expands significantly beyond long-term (ratio > 1.5), it signals a risk event (bearish). Compression (ratio < 0.7) suggests calm accumulation (bullish).

9. Liquidation Imbalance (5%)

Compares long vs short liquidations over 24h. Heavy long liquidations = bearish cascade. Heavy short liquidations = short squeeze (bullish).

Why only 5%: Liquidation data is noisy and spiky. It's useful as a confirming signal but unreliable as a primary indicator.

10. DXY Correlation (5%)

The US Dollar Index has historically moved inversely to crypto. A surging DXY is headwind for crypto (bearish). Weakening DXY is tailwind (bullish).

Why only 5%: The DXY-crypto correlation varies over time and sometimes breaks down entirely. It's a macro context signal, not a primary driver.

How the Ensemble Works

Each signal votes: bullish (+1), bearish (-1), or neutral (0). The weighted sum determines the regime:

Net score > 0.2 → Bull

Net score < -0.2 → Bear

Between → Chop

Confidence is derived from how far the net score is from the thresholds.

Graceful Degradation

When a data source fails (CoinGecko rate limit, FRED delay, etc.), that signal's weight redistributes proportionally. The classifier never breaks — it just has fewer inputs and lower confidence.

This was 60% of the engineering work. Real-world data pipelines are messy.

Try It

``bash


Free, no auth needed
curl https://getregime.com/api/v1/market/regime

Pro tier ($49/mo) shows the full signal breakdown with individual values and interpretations.

Full docs: getregime.com/quickstart